ENSO and Climate Variability

Science Concepts—ENSO and Climate Variability

Summary: A major source of climate variability in the Pacific Northwest comes from the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is defined by shifts in ocean currents and winds off the western coast of South America, the resulting changes in sea surface temperature (SST) affects our weather in Oregon. In El Niño years, an increase in SST leads to warmer winters and below average rainfall, snowpack, and streamflow in Oregon. As scientific understanding and forecasting of ENSO improves, communities can better plan for short term climate variability.

Concepts to teach:

• Crosscutting Concepts
  • Cause and Effect
• Disciplinary Core Ideas
  • ESS2.A – Earth Materials and Systems
  • ESS2.D – Weather and Climate
• Science Practices
  • Developing and Using Models

Goals:

1. Oregon’s climate is affected by ocean processes centered at distant locations
2. Complex factors combine to produce patterns of climate variability that can be predicted
3. The relationship between ENSO and global climate change is not yet well understood

Standards:

• NGSS Performance Expectations
  • HS-ESS2-4. Use a model to describe how variations in the flow of energy into and out of Earth’s systems result in changes in climate
• Ocean Literacy Principle 3: The ocean is a major influence on weather and climate

Specific Objectives:
Students will be able to:

1. Describe the El Niño / Southern Oscillation and its affect on Oregon
2. Use real-time data and forecasts to explain the effects of ENSO on the current year

Activity Links and Resources:

• Definition of ENSO from University of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group
• Online activity: Can we blame El Niño for wild weather?—Explore online activities and animations from McDougal Littell.
• El Niño Theme Page from NOAA-PMEL
  • Use online data to find out what’s happening now
  • See historical data on El Niño impacts on Oregon from the Climate Prediction Center
• Online activity: El Niño from NOAA Ocean Explorer, with online quizzes
• Reading/discussion:
  • Are there links between ENSO and global warming? A reply from researcher Billy Kessler, PMEL-NOAA
  • From the NOAA El Niño theme page: Using models to forecast El Niño events

Assessment:

• Search available resources to find out the forecast for ENSO for the current year. What evidence is used to support forecast predictions?
• Can We Blame El Niño for Wild Weather includes questions at the end of each section
• El Niño from NOAA Ocean Explorer includes online quizzes at the end of each section